Hats off to Degenkolb! Consecutive wins is quite the feat in any of the bigger tours and he is now really sailing up as one of the gunners to really be reckoned with. Some might argue that he boxed in Bouhanni, but the judges would have none of that and crowned the german of Giant-Shimano the winner. Given that we had our bet on Bouhanni we were not really happy with how this played out, and trying to be unbiased here I would say that it seemed very peculiar him moving out like that, but I am trying to take losses gracefully and I will do so here then 🙂
The race didn’t pan out as I had expected. Given the massive heat that were put upon the riders made it hard to exert too much energy and there were only a two-man break that got away. The pace of the peloton were really sluggish today, but there were still a couple of riders that decided to attack at various points. Even Froome made a push to get some extra seconds on the other GC contenders in the intermediate check. At the end though the speed got high and frisky, and we saw quite a lot of riders attacking the rest of the field with Tinkoff-Saxo leading the way. At the end we had a mass sprint where both Bouhanni and Degenkolb were in a league of their own.
Benalmádena to La Zubia – Stage 6 Preview
Now we are starting on a mountain stage and it would be a slight miracle if Degenkolb would do a trifecta here. It is not that hilly of a stage, but there are two gruel climbs to look forward to, especially the finish which will feature an exceptionally steep climb for about 5km. We are sure to see some attacking from some of the GC contenders here as there are many that are not looking forward to the time trial and need to get some extra seconds going into that. We expect Froome to want to nail something here, and Quintana is always to be expected when there is hills to ascend.
As said the first third of the stage runs like a sprinting stage, but then it takes off with a 8km climb and it gets a little bumpy for the rest of the ride, but nothing spectacular. A slight 3rd category climb is in there, but downhill for the most part otherwise. The fight is gonna happen at the end, that I am certain off.
Not much value we have found in todays race as Joaquin Rodriguez is the big favorite in the race tomorrow. The odds of him winning at 3.00 is a little tempting considering he is such a strong rider and this is just his forte, but there are so many things that can happen during a 167km+ race that I do not like to play those odds.
We will rather try to find some other strong contenders that can take it and one of these we like is the Spanish veteran riding for Team Katusha, namely Daniel Moreno. He has been keeping up in the sprinting stages and showed that he can hang with the best, but he is also pretty tough when it comes to the mountains. He showed that both under the Dauphine and in Burgos. A smaller bet on him as the winner is warranted with these odds.
As the last bets we will also tack on a couple of match-ups: a couple of evenly matched riders in Pardilla and Chaves. Old vs young and we believe that the veteran has the edge and we will take the odds. The same goes for Arroyo vs Aru. Experience vs up and coming. Again we believe they are about evenly matched, but since we are offered longer odds we will take it.
Stage Winner: Daniel Moreno, 19.00 @ BetVictor
Match-Up: Sergio Pardilla to beat Jhoan Esteban Chavez Rubio, 2.25 @ Unibet
Match-Up: David Arroyo to beat Fabio Aru, 2.35 @ Unibet