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Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 5 – Betting Tips

Poor day in the trenches. Farrar and Vallee both looked totally lost and were crushed by not only the opponents we set them up against, but also in the overall setting. Vallee burned out too much in trying to gain an early advantage and got left behind when the peloton upped the tempo once again. At least Stepniak could edge his opponent.

Now it is time for some other types of riders to shine. I am betting Rafa Majka is anxious to get going and prove his worth at home. He managed to snatch the polka dot in Tour de France after their captain Alberto Contador hit the dust. Not only that but he also managed to take 2 stage wins in the mountains. Incredible performance by him. This stage would be a perfect one for him to creep up on the leader at the moment in Vakoc who is not exactly a prominent climber.

Zakopane to Strbskie Plese – Stage 5 Preview

zakopane-to-strbskie-pleso-stage-5-profile
We now move away both from the flat stages and Poland and into the mountains and Slovakia. This is quite a tough one that features a somewhat easy first half of the stage with only one second category bump. We are likely to see someone trying to form a break here, but it will be hard to be able to sustain it into the second half. This part is to become a lot more gruesome as it has 3 category one climbs, the final one which ends at the top of Strbskie Pleso. Only the toughest of climbers will be able to make anything work here, and if a break should have any hope of being able to sustain itself they not only need to work together, but they need to be more than just a few in order to have the strength for it.

I would not like their chances though as the peloton has been fierce in keeping up with breaks and I bet Tinkoff-Saxo is quite anxious in getting their newborn star at the front of the race here.

Our Predictions

It is gonna be really exciting seeing who is who when we finally get to the mountains here. As already mentioned we think that Rafa Majka is gonna be out to prove himself here and he has a good chance given his showing in France. Now there are opponents he needs to fend off here and one of those we think have a good chance of taking him is Julian Arredondo of Trek Factory. This young Colombian rode exceptionally well in Giro d’Italia and nabbed the polka dot there for his efforts. He also got a stage win there, and with this support team behind him he definitely will be able to give him competition to the door. Combine all of this with the fact that he has been able to rest for longer we like his chances not only to edge out Majka, but also to take a stage win here.

Stage Winner: Julian Arredondo, 5.50 @ BetVictor

Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 4 – Betting Tips

Great start to our betting on this race, just as where we left off. I even got a little extra something from the Bos win, but not much as I kept the betting there to a minimum. Felt the top riders were quite the big favorites to take this, but Theo Bos played the end of the race perfectly.

Just as I expected the peloton would be more fierce in their attempt to catch up with the breakaways after the “shocking” win by Vakoc on stage 2. When 4 riders broke away early in the race it did not take long before the main group of riders decided to up the tempo and get moving. They easily caught up with them and we were witnessing a mass sprint at the end. This one were played perfectly by Bos who sat on the wheel of the big ones and attacked on the final stretch which secured him the win.

Tarnów Gemini Park to Katowice – Stage 4 Preview

tarnow-gemini-park-to-katowice-stage-4-profile
It is time for yet another flat stage. Somewhat longer and a uphill climb in the middle there, but for the most part we will find that the sprinters once again are gonna duke it out for the stage win. As said this one is also a little longer than yesterday, and given that it was hard riding yesterday we might see someone take it easy here. Could pose a chance for a break, but again we believe that the sprinter teams likely won’t have any of that and should do their part to get their riders at the front.

The ending here is also interesting as there will be about 4 laps of little over 12km that is filled with turns and bends. If we haven’t already had enough crashes and accidents, there is bound to be someone pushing the boundary here and get a little too frisky in a turn. The final stretch is about 1km of a straight line, so there is room for the power riders to really get it going.

Our Predictions

The favorites are about the same as the ones we had yesterday. Bos, Matthews, Mecgez, Matthews, Modolo, Hutarovich and so on will likely get to the finish line in the top ten and we are gonna have an exciting one.

The first one is weird. Boris Vallee should be the clear favorite, but William Hill has given him the highest odds. Easy value bet right here.

Hutarovich didn’t look as strong yesterday and might have burned a little too much off in his victory race. Against Tyler Farrar he should be the favorite in going up at the top, but we foresee him giving another weak showing and probably give a chance for Farrar to overtake him here.

Finally we have two close riders in terms of strength, but Stepniak should be favored in this ending. If he gets in a sprint he should have the big edge over Chavanel when it is slight downhill. Combine this with the fact that his riding has been a bit sub-par so far we like a bet on Stepniak to do his job here.

Match-up: Boris Vallee to beat Ramon Sinkeldam, 2.05 @ William Hill

Match-up: Tyler Farrar to beat Yauheni Hutarovich, 2.37 @ William Hill

Match-up: Grzegorz Stepniak to beat Sebastian Chavanel, 1.83 @ Bet365

Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 3 – Betting Tips

Things died down for me after Tour de France. Too much I think as I simply forgot to follow the Polish Tour! I have my excuses though as I went on a much needed vacation, but now it is time to go again. The French race provided us with a decent bankroll boost. Not as great as I had hoped, but we did win some decent money in the end.

Now we turn our heads to Tour de Pologne and the “short” race that is to be concluded before another big one comes up with the Vuelta in Spain. The big cannons are not participating in this one, but that does not mean it won’t feature any exciting riding. Today for example we saw a power display by Petr Vakoc from Omega Pharma Quickstep. He pulled ahead in the break and then just went solo for the last 25km. I do not think anyone in the Peloton thought he would be able to go all the way alone, but he took charge and pushed out all the energy he had. He now sits with a comfortable lead in the GC, but probably not for long.

Kielce to Rzeszów – Stage 3 Preview

The profile for the stage 20 of Tour de France 2014, Bergerac to Perigueux.
Another flat, and even shorter stage than the one that they rode yesterday. It has some more bumps, but it should not tear on the energy too much unless the peloton decides to ride really fast in order to get something going or catch up to a possible break. A break is off course highly likely here and we will see them take no chances like happened today and actually ride them in for a change.

It is gonna be interesting if the peloton arrives first here as the end has some really sharp bends and turns. Positioning up to the final 300m straight file is going to be very important in order to stand a chance in the sprint.

Our Predictions

We have not found many bets that we like on this stage unfortunately. The favorites to takes this stage are resilient sprinters like Matthews, Mecgez and Hutarovich. You could maybe place a small bet on one of the outsiders like Theo Bos or Sacha Modolo to get a good position and take it all the way at Bet365, but we will not make those official plays.

One bet that has stuck out to us is a match-up between two of the top sprinters here in Matthews and Hutarovich. While Hutarovich has already won one stage, the reason that Matthews couldn’t stand up to him were because he got caught up in all the problems with the weather and the crashes. He is fine but have just been unlucky. (Edit: And I were aware that Matthews took second on the 2nd stage, but were not aware of this happening. Sucks for him, but hilarious to watch.) Because of this he might be looking to get his revenge and finally show some results. He is quite a bit better than Hutarovich in our opinion and we will place a bet on him at William Hill.

Match-up: Michael Matthews to beat Yauheni Hutarovich, 1.67 @ William Hill