Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 3 – Betting Tips

Things died down for me after Tour de France. Too much I think as I simply forgot to follow the Polish Tour! I have my excuses though as I went on a much needed vacation, but now it is time to go again. The French race provided us with a decent bankroll boost. Not as great as I had hoped, but we did win some decent money in the end.

Now we turn our heads to Tour de Pologne and the “short” race that is to be concluded before another big one comes up with the Vuelta in Spain. The big cannons are not participating in this one, but that does not mean it won’t feature any exciting riding. Today for example we saw a power display by Petr Vakoc from Omega Pharma Quickstep. He pulled ahead in the break and then just went solo for the last 25km. I do not think anyone in the Peloton thought he would be able to go all the way alone, but he took charge and pushed out all the energy he had. He now sits with a comfortable lead in the GC, but probably not for long.

Kielce to Rzeszów – Stage 3 Preview

The profile for the stage 20 of Tour de France 2014, Bergerac to Perigueux.
Another flat, and even shorter stage than the one that they rode yesterday. It has some more bumps, but it should not tear on the energy too much unless the peloton decides to ride really fast in order to get something going or catch up to a possible break. A break is off course highly likely here and we will see them take no chances like happened today and actually ride them in for a change.

It is gonna be interesting if the peloton arrives first here as the end has some really sharp bends and turns. Positioning up to the final 300m straight file is going to be very important in order to stand a chance in the sprint.

Our Predictions

We have not found many bets that we like on this stage unfortunately. The favorites to takes this stage are resilient sprinters like Matthews, Mecgez and Hutarovich. You could maybe place a small bet on one of the outsiders like Theo Bos or Sacha Modolo to get a good position and take it all the way at Bet365, but we will not make those official plays.

One bet that has stuck out to us is a match-up between two of the top sprinters here in Matthews and Hutarovich. While Hutarovich has already won one stage, the reason that Matthews couldn’t stand up to him were because he got caught up in all the problems with the weather and the crashes. He is fine but have just been unlucky. (Edit: And I were aware that Matthews took second on the 2nd stage, but were not aware of this happening. Sucks for him, but hilarious to watch.) Because of this he might be looking to get his revenge and finally show some results. He is quite a bit better than Hutarovich in our opinion and we will place a bet on him at William Hill.

Match-up: Michael Matthews to beat Yauheni Hutarovich, 1.67 @ William Hill

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 20 – Betting Tips

Bad weather at the stage yesterday caused the group to take it easy going in the last 10km. Brand new and wet tarmac made it really likely for a mass crash, and that was just what we got. Some of the bigger favorites, like Sagan got caught in the crash and made his chances of winning a stage that much slimmer. Navardauskas took advantage of the bad weather and took off a few kilometers before the finish line and the race never were able to catch him again because they had to take it easy on the corners.

Again no big winners, but our match-up bets won again. Elmiger were part of a breakaway, but it weren’t able to keep the distance for long. We caught a little break with the other bets as well because of the big crash, but I guess that makes up for the other unfortunate sides we have been on before these events.

Bergerac to Périgueux – Stage 20 Preview

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The first – and last – time trial of this years Tour de France and finally some other specialists gets their day of fame. There are plenty of big names that can claim this day, but there is one guy that stands above all of them, namely Tony Martin. He simply excels at time trials and will likely want to get his second stage win of the year here to top off a very good season for him.

The stage is quite long for being a time trial and it also have some bumps that could prove difficult and make the speed go down a little. This still doesn’t change much in the fact that this race should be determined by the big trialists in Nibali, Van Garderen, Dumoulin and so on.

Our Predictions

I feel there is not many that can contend Tony Martin’s chances of getting a stage win here, so we will simply refrain from coming up with a stage winner bet. We didn’t find much of value and the odds on him taking it at around ~1.28 seems about right. We will rather focus our efforts on some more interesting match-up bets where we have something that we feel can provide some value.

Both Tanel Kangert and Tom Dumoulin have been matched up with two that we feel they are better than at time trial races. When we get the odds above 2.00 we need to take our chances here. Tejay Van Garderen is a very strong time trialist, but so is Tom Dumouling. There is not much that separates the skills between these riders, but getting 2.20 here is very generous and we happily accept.

We end off with a big favorite in Pinot to beat Mollema. Pinot is looking to claim the white jersey, but could have a chance at a podium finish if everything falls his way. He is likely to race for his life and claim a good time here. Mollema is simply outmatched, and again – out motivated.

Match-up: Tanel Kangert to beat Jesus Herrada, 2.10 @ Bet365

Match-up: Tom Dumoulin to beat Tejay Van Garderen, 2.20 @ Bet365

Match-up: Thibaut Pinot to beat Bauke Mollema, 1.44 @ William Hill

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 19 – Betting Tips

There is nothing left to say about Nibali. The Italian has been a total boss in the mountains. He took off when there was a little less than 10km to go and just never looked back after that. Nieve stood no chance who had tried to go at it alone and Rafa Majka also took a shot at him, but to no avail. He is just the better rider of all of these and proved that handsomely today. Again, really would have liked to see him duke it out with Contador and Froome. Maybe next year? 🙂

We also had a decent day with regards to betting. No big winner, but again, kinda as expected. We won our match-up bets, which made us a nice profit. Again my live betting did well in addition, got a bit in on Nibali when we saw the peloton didn’t fall too much behind. If we don’t lose too badly the next days this has been a pretty profitable Tour.

Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour to Bergerac – Stage 19 Preview

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After some incredible mountain stages and a grueling finish up Tourmalet today it is time for some flat routes again. This one is a long one, but almost no climbs at all. There is only a couple of bumps at the end that might cause a little trouble for the faster racers, but it should be open to anyone looking to get a stage win. Off course we will see Peter Sagan coming up and claiming that first one, but he is accompanied by Kittel, Kristoff, Greipel and other sprinters.

We can envision a break forming here as well. Especially Bryan Coquard looked ready to take a stab at Sagan today and might be ready to go today as well. Not that he has a chance, but we don’t need to mention that to him. There is also plenty of other racers that knows that the chances of getting a stage win draws close to zero and need to make a move soon. We will see some high speed racing and some risky breaks, but whether any will work I doubt. This is where the sprinter teams need to shine and do their jobs.

Our Predictions

We have none of the big ones we like to take this as the odds are just not that tempting. The obvious favorites are the likes of Sagan, Kittel, Kristoff, Greipel, Degenkolb and co. But it is hard to differentiate between these, and getting less than 10 in odds for all of them makes it not worth our while. Therefore we will try a couple of smaller outsiders that could have a surprise day or possibly take off in a break. For this we like to split our bet on these three racers: Arnaud Demare (34.00 @ Bet365), Martin Elmiger (101.00 @ BetVictor) and Sylvain Chavanel (71.00 @ William Hill).

We will add in our specialty; match-up bets – and here we have one where we believe that Kittel has a good chance of taking the sprint, but only if he gets there. Greipel will most likely beat him as he is for sure to get to the end, but Kittel will only care if he gets to the sprint. And even then it is not certain he will take him. Getting this good odds on Greipel finishing ahead is quite nice.

Last is Pinot who still has a lot to ride for. He cannot lose any time to Bardet, although he hasn’t done so as of yet. But he is more than likely to edge out König, and with 1.85 we will take that. The frenchman is better on the flat and again motivation plays a big role.

Match-up: Andre Greipel to beat Marcel Kittel, 1.62 @ Bet365

Match-up: Thibaut Pinot to beat Leopold König, 1.85 @ William Hill

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 18 – Betting Tips

What a turnaround these last stages have been for Tinkoff-Saxo! After Contador had to forfeit, things looked really bleak as they really didn’t have anything to ride for. Now 5 stages later they have secured 3 stage wins and have a rider in the lead for the polka dot jersey. Not a bad Tour if it would have ended now eh? And how about the young polish rider Rafal Majka? He shows why Contador has been able to portray such amazing results the later years, as with these kind of riders pulling him around he must have quite the excess of power when he needs to come out blazing.

Our stage winner bets didn’t pan out, but that is again to be expected sometimes with such long odds. Our match up bet won quite handsomely, although Van Den Broeck didn’t look all that bad riding up the hills, it was just that Van Garderen seems to be in even greater shape. It’s also still fun to watch the bouts between the frenchmen, and now Peraud wants to get into the mix as well. All of them are out to get a podium finish, as well as the young rider jersey for the former two. As stated, even though the GC contention is all but over, it is still plenty of other fights to watch for.

Pau to Hautacam – Stage 18 Preview

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We are still not done with the mountains as we have two stages left before we get to ground level and some time trialing. It will be exciting to see who have kept some extra juice in their legs and who have completely topped out. It is a crucial part spreading out the energy exerted and making well thought out attacks that are timed right. We are again probably looking at several attacks as there is little else to ride for here other than stage wins, the white jersey and the polka dot.

This stage has less climbs, but in return this is the biggest climb of them all. Col du Tourmalet is over 2km above sea level and it is gonna demand extraordinary amount of energy to be able to seize this. After that it is a long descend, before the final climb up to the finish line at Hautacam. This stage naturally favors Nibali, and not just because he is the better rider left with great climbing skills, but because he might be the best descender of all the racers in the world. He will be able to make up or extend leads in this territory and do some real work here. Will probably take it a little easy given that he has the yellow jersey in the bag, but still a stage suited for him if he decides to take another final stab at a stage win.

Our Predictions

Bardet isn’t quite at the level of Nibali, but this young frenchman have shown that he is capable of tangling with the best and certainly not afraid of attacking them. Now he needs to make up time in order to have a chance at the white jersey from Pinot and to get a podium finish in the GC. It will be hard as Pinot and Valverde are not about to let him run rampant. We do foresee Bardet attacking, and will be fighting teeth and claw to get the pole position and extra seconds. We like him at the long odds presented at BetVictor.

We also have some match-ups, one where Bardet is set to beat Valverde. Valverde has the edge here, with the experience and probably the better rider, he should be able to take him. However, Bardet is on a mission now as he has not been able to make up time and now he needs it. It is merely two stages with hills left before they go down again, and he needs to do it here. Look for him to attack and Valverde will be content just keeping up and not letting him advance any further on the GC list.

Another one is the value bet we found on Frank Schleck. He has surprised us in the mountains, and we will bet on him keeping this trend up. Rolland is a very good rider and it will be tough to beat him, but these two are about evenly matched where Rolland has had the tiny edge so far. Given the coin flip we take the odds here.

Stage winner: Romain Bardet, 41.00 @ BetVictor

Match-up: Frank Schleck to beat Pierre Rolland, 2.20 @ William Hill

Match-up: Romain Bardet to beat Alejandro Valverde, 2.20 @ Bet365

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 17 – Betting Tips

It got very exciting up the hills of Port de Balès today. The main GC contenders were 10+ minutes trailing, but none in the breakaway would be in any form threatening the lead of Nibali and the others. The closest would be Kwiatkowski. But they soon gained on them and closed the gap down. Eventually the break prevailed and crowned Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo the stage winner. He showed amazing stamina up the hills and secured a much needed win for the team that lost their captain earlier in the race. The grueling climb saw many of the potential stage winners and famous riders fall off as the strongest started to take off. It was quite a few seeing them fighting for the spot and Rogers eventually leading the way in front of Voeckler, Kiryienka, Serpa and Gautier. Tough riding from all of them.

Saint-Gaudens to Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet – Stage 17 Preview

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But now its gonna be fun to see who put out too much at today’s stage and if they can keep up tomorrow. The profile looks kinda the same, but the length of the race is almost half of the one we had today. This means that some incredible speed might be tried in a potential breakaway to nab a stage win, and it will be tough for those with tired legs to keep up. I expect the peloton to do their part and keep up, but the speed will be high there as well.

The stage features a flat stage for the first third of the ride, then there is three first category climbs, and then the main climb at the end for the finish line. A short race for about 125km, where we can almost guarantee that the likes of Rodriguez and Majka are looking to get some more points in their chase for the polka dot. Highly likely to see breaks here, but again, nothing is certain and they might be taken aback if the peloton puts their mind to it.

Our Predictions

We haven’t found all that many good bets today, but we have a few that we liked enough to give them a chance. First we go ahead with another stage winner bet and here is another chance that Team Sky has to get themselves a stage win. Chris Froome went out early and now they are firmly focused on getting a stage win after it seems Richie Porte is totally out of it. He cannot hang with the top riders in the mountains and gets beaten again and again. They were hoping for a podium finish with him, but now that is left to be a theoretical question rather than practical. They need to get something going and this might be the day that Nieve gets a break and takes it all. Obviously a longshot, but Bakelants looked good yesterday, but he simply couldn’t keep up in the ferocious speed that the climbers had.

Ill also add a couple of smaller bets on Tony Martin and Bakelants, both 101 at Unibet.

We’ll also add a match-bet where Van Garderen will dominate Van Den Broeck. These seems to be evenly matched, where Van Garderen have been within the top 50 for every race so far. Van Den Broeck have been struggling in the mountains, but did well today. We do not foresee that continue as the American Van Garderen have a podium finish to fight for and needs every bit of help he can get going into the time trial. He is for sure gonna make good work there, but want nothing left to chance. He is the better rider, with also the better motivation.

Stage winner: Mikel Nieve, 41.00 @ William Hill

Match-up: Tejay Van Garderen to beat Jurgen Van Den Broeck, 1.83 @ Bet365

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 16 – Betting Tips

Finally another good day of betting, and I don’t even count all the live bets I put in on Kristoff. And boy am I happy he secured another win! For some reason it becomes something else cheering for a rider from your home country. Off course it helps that he is good at sprinting as well 🙂

In the flat stage that ended the second period we saw all the bigger sprint racers at the forefront for the stage win. The Katusha rider Kristoff took the win in front of Peter Sagan yet again and claimed his second win of his Tour de France career. Pretty uneventful day besides that and not much else to report. There were a breakaway, but they were easily taken care off and we had a mass sprint at the end where Kristoff acted cool as a cucumber.

Carcassonne to Bagnères-de-Luchon – Stage 16 Preview

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Another mountain stage is facing the riders after they have had a day off, but this is an easier one than the two we have seen before this. It goes slight uphill from the start to a top about 3/5ths into the stage. Then it is downhill and up a huge climb before it ends with a drop that lasts for about 20km. This stage do favour the tougher GC contenders, but given that it is a little easier and how the picture of the general classification looks right now the chances of breaks going all the way is quite high. There are several of riders that are looking to compete for the polka dot and need to attack in order to secure points. Combine this with the fact that there are also several teams that are looking for stage wins as they have nothing else left to compete for you will see plenty of riders excited to simply go get it.

Our Predictions

We figure that there will be breaks, and probably large breaks as well. The belgium ride Jan Bakelants has not been able to prove himself this tour and he is probably biding his time. He is a well-rounded rider that showed just that in the Dauphine where he won a flat stage and kept up with the break in a mountainous stage 4 that looked very much like this one. He has so far not done much to break his consistent stride, but my guess is that he is simply waiting for his chance. If he gets in a break he has a big chance of taking it and with the generous odds offered at BetVictor we are looking for him to take a chance here.

As always, we take a couple of match-up bets to go. This time it is with two big favorites to take this in the mountains, Nibali and Rogers to edge out Valverde and Roche respectively. Both of these match-ups have been quite one sided affairs and we believe that will happen here again. Rogers is looking for a win and will fight with teeth and claw for it, while Nibali will not give up much time, even with the lead he has. Look for him to also hog for the win and we will place a smaller bet on him to take it at BetVictor where the odds on him to win is 9.00.

Stage winner: Jan Bakelants, 41.00 @ BetVictor

Match-up: Michael Rogers to beat Nicolas Roche, 1.40 @ WilliamHill

Match-up: Vicenzo Nibali to beat Alejandro Valverde, 1.70 @ WilliamHill

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 15 – Betting Tips

Wow! What a race that was, amazing riding from the polish cyclist Rafal Majka to take his first ever Tour de France stage win, in his first ever Tour de France! It is these things we are looking for now and having fun with. Sure, the general classification might be already decided, but there are so many nail biting and exciting performances on display from individual riders that wants badly to showcase their skill. This Tinkoff-Saxo rider sure has delivered a great display for their eccentric owner.

I guess we can just jump smoothly over the fact that Nibali came in second and increase his lead even further, and that our bets kinda sucked yet again. Seems my luck has turned for the middle of this Tour. I just hope I can turn it around yet again and get some big ones for the end.

Tallard to Nîmes – Stage 15 Preview

The profile for the stage 14 of Tour de France 2014, Grenoble to Risoul.
Now we are back in territory for the sprinters and power riders. After some grueling days in the height it is time for a day where it actually is a net-negative meters climbing. There are some slight bumps in the start, then some downhill riding and then it is almost completely flat until the end of the race, for about 60km. Simple enough stage and you can bet your ass that the Cannondale train is coming out with Sagan on the tail. Yes, Sagan is for sure looking to get his first win in this Tour. He has almost completely sealed the deal regarding the sprinting jersey, but he wants at least one win and you can bet your ass he will be pulling all the stunts here. He needs to get ahead before the sprint as he does not stand a chance against the powerhouses that are Kittel, Kristoff and Greipel.

Our Predictions

So we are looking at a slovak that is vying to tear things up. This is off course noted by all the rest of the riders and they won’t have much of it. That is why we are looking to bet against our fun-loving eastern european rider. Kristoff has seemed to dominate him in every sprint this year, and although Kristoff has said he is content with his one win, we foresee him getting a boost from it and going straight for another one here. We really believe he will be able to keep up with Sagan and the rest into the sprint and thus beat him when it comes to sprinting.

Bauke Mollema has powered through a solid Tour so far. He has stuck with the peloton through and through and does not seem much phazed. He is also doing pretty good in the sprinting stages. The same could be said about some of Kwiatkowskis racing, but he is far too inconsistent. He has struggled in the climbs now and does not look to be ready to go full on tomorrow, probably just being content with keeping up.

Another pair of relatively unimpressive sprinters, but given that Bardet is fighting for his white jersey against Pinot he is bound to be fighting to the end and probably looking to get any seconds he can by being in the sprint if they get in together in the peloton. Look for either a break or aggressive riding at the end.

Finally there is a bet between two equally matched sprinters that seems to following each other around in the sprint. They keep placing right next to each other and bout for the spots between them. But Dumoulin has seemed to struggle far more in the mountains and it seemed to have really drained him. It seems that Rojas Gil is in far better shape than Dumoulin and should beat him in this fight.

Match-up: Alexander Kristoff to beat Peter Sagan, 1.85 @ WilliamHill

Match-up: Bauke Mollema to beat Michal Kwiatkowski, 2.20 @ WilliamHill

Match-up: Romain Bardet to beat Jurgen Van Den Broeck, 1.85 @ WilliamHill

Match-up: Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil to beat Samuel Dumoulin, 2.00 @ Bet365

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 14 – Betting Tips

Meh. Bad day for betting – again. Had a bad streak the later days. But it was fun finally watching a really tough climb and see who has been practicing hard and who is not quite up to shape. Nibali looked really solid just parking the rest of the field at the end there and really showed that he might have taken on Contador even if he still would be in this. It has certainly taken out some of the excitement given that both Froome and Contador is out of it and Nibali looks so dominant, but one never knows. Seems like most people (including me) have been underestimating this Italian. Sure is fun to watch his dominance and too bad he can’t match it up against the others to prove his strengths.

It is also fun to watch the contest between the other riders: Pinot and Bardet is duking it out for the Youth jersey and the hearts of the French nation. I guess they are both getting that right now as they are riding their butts off. Nibali also holds the polka dot at the moment and might even be a contender to get that as well. Rodriguez needs to start pulling ahead and attacking on different stages, and we might just see one tomorrow. Even though the GC contest looks all but over, there are still plenty of action to follow. And the cycling betting isn’t over until the race is over 🙂

Grenoble to Risoul – Stage 14 Preview

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Time for another day in the mountains. And this time it is even more grueling as the climb starts out right away and then looks like the other stage after that, with maybe somewhat easier climbs. It should prove tough for the sprinters to even get through this stage and this should be exciting to watch. Nibali obviously have a good chance of taking another win here with his great power right now. It does not look like anyone can keep up with him and if he can get in there with the peloton and have no breakaways leading the way he is in a good spot to add some more time to the already good lead he has.

Rodriguez is looking to gain some points here and we might see him in a break. The same still goes for the teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and now maybe Sky as well that have riders without much purpose at the moment. Both their captains is out and they have little chance of getting a podium finish. All they now care about is stage wins and that could be taken in breaks. But I do not see it happening here as there simply seems to random and sporadic when they start. If no one can get a group going there seems unlikely a break will get this stage. Look for another peloton fight at the end.

Our Predictions

As we stated at the end of our stage preview we really do not foresee any kind of breakaway getting settled and thus it will come down to the strength of the riders and their timing in breaking from the group. We only see Nibali being able to make this happen, and the only thing standing between him and another stage win is that he simply doesn’t care about it and only wants to keep the other riders at bay. That is why we are a little reluctant putting a bet on him. 5.36 at Pinnacle is a little low as we feel the chance of him just being content with following the train up is quite high.

That is why we would rather take a chance on Rodriguez beating Nibali in a match-up. He has a lot more at stake as he needs all the points he can get, not to mention he is hungry for a win. He is the clear underdog, but 4.00 is waaay too good of odds to give him.

We also favor the young frenchman Thibaut Pinot in a match-up against Alejandro Valverde. The spaniard didn’t look as sharp up the hill, and Pinot has showed some prowess where he barely came in behind him today. If he gets on the right track, he could have a fighting chance against him. We end the betting slip with a couple of value bets where the odds at William Hill seems a little off: van den Broeck and Konig to edge out their competition seems like decent value. Both have been doing good in the mountains and we like their chances.

A couple of small bets on the french duo Pinot and Bardet at 19.00 (Bet365) and 51.00 (William Hill) to make things a little interesting. These are looking to fight for the Youth jersey and Nibali might not view them as big of a threat either.

Match-up: Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Vicenzo Nibali, 4.00 @ Bet365

Match-up: Thibaut Pinot to beat Alejandro Valverde, 2.62 @ Bet365

Match-up: Jurgen Van Den Broeck to beat Bauke Mollema, 1.75 @ WilliamHill

Match-up: Leopold Konig to beat Rafal Majka, 1.80 @ WilliamHill

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 13 – Betting Tips

Kristoff! My man! He finally claimed his first Tour stage victory, just what he has been looking for. It came down to a little luck as Degenkolb were blocked by Trentin, Greipel were involved in a crash late in the stage and Peter Sagan started too late to catch up. But that last one I won’t hold against Kristoff. He showed why he is a power contender for every flat stage in the sprints as he has real churn going on in that machine. He showed real tenacity to just fly away from the rest of the group so late. Congrats to him – and good luck through the rest of the tour!

As for our bets, that crash of Greipel a few kilometers out of the final sprint screwed our chances of winning some real money, but both our match-up bets won (again). Seems that these are what I know how to predict, maybe I should learn to just stick to these, hehe. I don’t think I will though as there are just so many good bets available at long odds, but the swings experienced with these types of long odds are quite high. That is why one should wager a lot less on them. I will put up an article on why that is and a betting system that I use called the Kelly Criterion.

Saint Étienne to Chamrousse – Stage 13 Preview

The profile for the stage 12 of Tour de France 2014, Bourg en Bresse to Saint Étienne.
After a slew of “easy” stages it is finally time for a real test of the GC contenders. Some real mountains to ascend. Now we are going to see a relatively flat stage, but then we have a real climb ahead, which suddenly drops all the way down again right before there is an even steeper and longer climb to be surmounted. A break is a possibility as even though it is flat for long parts of the stage and frankly the hills will suck most the energy out of the riders, but some are merely looking for that one stage win to make the Tour worth it.

As always this will be hard to predict, but breakaways would not be out of the question here. I do not see why the Astana team would be interested in anything other than just controlling the race and making sure no one of the contenders gets away. Nibali has a window of over 2 minutes down to the other riders and he is looking sharp. He just needs to focus on not crashing from here, and most likely on out. This leaves opportunities for other racers to take the center stage if they are able to form a solid break.

Our Predictions

Today there is a lot that can happen. Nibali is off course the favorite, with Valverde probably going for it if he feels he has the chance to shave of some seconds in the mountains. You will likely see the Astana captain look to just follow him up the climbs and not try any kind of shenanigans. The odds is decent on both of these, but if I had to put money on a stage winner I would try Porte who has 17.00 in odds at Unibet. Some outsiders like Horner or van Garderen could pay of as well, so we have played them as well for some smaller sums at 81 and 51 at Bet365.

This day I have the focus on some match-ups. Seems like that is where I make the money anyways, so lets give this a go! We will start out with Kruijswijk who kept up with the field well yesterday. He is an even better climber than Trofimov I feel and should come in ahead. We also have Schleck who I feel is really bad this Tour and Horner who is an excellent climber. Should be an easy win.

The next two are kind of considered value bets. The odds on Cherel is good where I feel he is better then Gaustauer by a hair or so, so 2.00 in odds is enough. Take every edge you can get. Pinot against Porte is an interesting one. While Porte is now the captain of Sky and is looking to see how he fares against Nibali, I think that Pinot is just as likely to take his chances in the mountains and get a good result. These are fairly matched and I like the frenchmans chances and odds.

Match-up: Steven Kruijswijk to beat Yury Trofimov, 2.00 @ Bet365

Match-up: Mikael Cherel to beat Ben Gastauer, 2.00 @ Bet365

Match-up: Thibaut Pinot to beat Richie Porte, 2.10 @ Unibet

Match-up: Chris Horner to beat Frank Schleck, 1.62 @ Unibet

Tour de France 2014 – Stage 12 – Betting Tips

Argh, so close to nabbing a big score, but the group just simply didn’t feel like keeping up with Gallopin who sprung away and claimed the victory. A really strong performance by him, but also quite weak by the other participants that just let him go. I also feel really sorry for Peter Sagan who doesn’t seem to be getting all the help he needs to get his first stage win this year. Maybe we see him go to Tinkoff-Saxo next year?

But our match-up bets did good and won us back some money at least, so all in all the day was ok. I did well in the live betting department again, so maybe I should start sharing those tips as well? Quite frustrating not getting any big wins yet besides the Greipel bet, but that is how sports betting is, one big roller coaster. It is anyways time for another stage and thus another chance for glory.

Bourg en Bresse to Saint Étienne – Stage 12 Preview

bourg-en-bresse-to-saint-etienne-stage-12-profile
Nope, this is not an error, stage 12 is almost the exact copy of stage 11. Ok, it’s not that similar, but it will likely play out the same. It starts out flat, with some steady climbing and some bumps. Then there are two big climbs at the end and a downhill finish race-off. Again it seems like no stage for the GC contenders who will just try to keep up and one where breakaways are probably very prominent.

Now, there are two big differences between todays stage and the one we had yesterday. First there is the fact that there are sprint points put in place much closer to the start of the race so as to keep the sprinters looking to get those out of the way before taking it easy. Sagan has probably already won that jersey, but he will likely try again for a stage win here.

Another thing that makes it likely that some sprinters might try to keep up and go for a stage win here is that there is a long flat track towards the end of the race. If they can keep up with the peloton or get into a break they might have a big chance of taking one here.

Our Predictions

Again Peter Sagan has been put up as the favorite for taking first place, but with severely worse odds than the other times. It seems that the team just aren’t clicking and it showed in Sagan today as he was really frustrated. If he needs to do all the work himself he is not going to be able to take any stages. He does not seem to be able to rely on sitting on the wheel of Valverde and sneaking the wins of him either. Sadly we do not like his chances here. We might be tempted to put up a bet on him NOT winning the stage at 1.142 at Pinnacle Sports. The odds are a little low though, so we will refrain from it.

Who we do like here though is a guy like Andre Greipel. He has shown to be laxing of in the later stages and is probably saving up his energy to catch another stage win. This looks like one where he could standout. The only thing is that he needs to want to go for it and actually be able to keep up with the riders through the hills. We believe he wants this and is going for it. We could also recommend a bet on him beating Kristoff who hasn’t been feeling 100% lately and might try to stick it out a little more before he starts to attack.

The final bets are some match-ups: Frank Schleck have been doing ok, but we find value in betting against him here where he is up against Kruijswijk. I hate betting on him, and against him, but I feel the odds warrants it. The same goes for Simon Gerrans who is likely to be all up in the front getting his attack on. He will likely battle for a podium finish while Avermaet is likely to hang in there but not get up to speed.

Finally we also place a small bet on Michael Rogers to win. Tinkoff-Saxo has nothing left to play for besides stage wins, so look for them to attack at different intervals. This might be the place for him to take one home. 34.00 odds is widely available.

Stage Winner: Andre Greipel to win, 9.00 @ BetVictor

Match-up: Steven Kruijswijk to beat Frank Schleck, 1.926 @ Pinnacle Sports

Match-up: Simon Gerrans to beat Greg van Avermaet, 1.68 @ Unibet