Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 17 – Betting Tips

I decided to take a few days off the betting tips as I took a trip away from the city and out in the wilderness. Been having some relaxing days out and about, and now I am ready to get back and try to win some money in this Vuelta that still have several stages where things can be shaken up.

The GC contest seems to have already been decided as Alberto Contador has a solid lead that he increased even further in todays stage, but there are still 3 mountain stages left where anything can happen. Even the sprinting stage of tomorrow can happen at too high a pace and accidents or maybe energy goes out of him. But given how he has looked the past days (and all through the race) we do not foresee anyone toppling him. But I am betting they are gonna give it a solid try still.

Ortigueira to A Coruña – Stage 17 Preview

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The riders have had a tough time in the mountains, but after a day of rest tomorrow we are seeing a long, flat stage presented for the riders. I guess that the tempo will still be kept up high, even though Contador would be content with preserving his energy here. Don’t expect to see much shenanigans among those in the top 10, but Froome needs to make something happen if he wants to push himself at the top of the throne.

Again this stage is a prime candidate for the sprinters, and since the bigger sprinters in Peter Sagan and Nacer Bouhanni has dropped out of the Vuelta before the grueling mountain stages in order to prepare for the World Championship, it is now Degenkolbs stage to win. He is the clear favorite to take it here although there are possible upsets. Don’t expect there to be able to form a solid break and expect the peloton to come in with the powerhouses.

Our Predictions

We will start off easy here, and as always with these sprinting stages we will abstain from placing a winner bet. There is simply too high a chance that Degenkolb takes this, but at the same time such low odds on him to do it. Not worth it and we are having some problems coming up with decent alternatives.

Thus we would rather take a look at some matchups that we think present good value at this stage. One of them is Rodriguez to edge out Moreno. This is a peculiar bet given that this is a flat stage as none of these are recognized for their sprinting skills, but it is weird having Moreno as the clear favorite here. Rodriguez has a chance (albeit slim) to claim the GC overall win, and even greater chance at the podium and we know he will fight for this spot. We believe he will give it an extra go here to not lose to much time and Moreno has basically nothing to race for here.

Finally there is a race between two racers that also are looking to get a podium finish at the end of all this and we believe that Valverde has the edge in this specific race. He is definitely the stronger in the mountains, but he is also more than able to keep up with the peloton should a pace be put up. Both have potential to take it all, but Valverde is currently in second place and will be fighting the hardest. Given he is better and has higher motivation we really like his chances here.

Match-Up: Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Daniel Moreno, 2.25 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Alejandro Valverde to beat Daniel Martin, 1.85 @ William Hill

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 12 – Betting Tips

There was quite the fight to get into the break today as the peloton rode at high pace throughout. Many wanted to get into it and even Contador were about to catch Valverde off guard in the race. But when it came to the end all of the GC contenders were in the mix and they all closed down Gesink who had been leading the way for so long. Fabio Aru exploited this position and went for it when there were less than a kilometer to go to the top. This seemed like a perfect time to do it and Chris Froome did not respond in time. This allowed Aru to take his first stage win in this Vuelta and had him move up the ranks for the red jersey.

And as for our betting tips they also did very good this day so no complaints in that department. Let us hope we can keep it up. The day did not fare as well for Nairo Quintana who after crashing at the time trial managed to crash again today and had to forfeit the race. He probably were in no position to compete for the red jersey, or maybe even stage wins has he had looked very slow this tour. Let us hope he can make a healthy comeback and be ready for next season!

Logroño to Logroño – Stage 12 Preview

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An exciting day in the mountains which saw some quite high paced riding from the peloton. Will we see the same from the group when the stage is flat? I do think we will as the points classification is still open and there are plenty of points to grab tomorrow. I don’t expect any breaks to be able to form. Some will certainly try, but the stage is so flat that it needs to be really big and coordinated for it to be successful. The stage is also a lot shorter than most others so they might allow themselves to ride harder here as well.

Obviously Bouhanni and Degenkolb are the big favorites here and we believe it will be a fight between these unless someone can get off a well timed attack to surprise them or somehow get in a break, but we do not think that will happen.

Our Predictions

Given that this race is going to go fast we want to see who are in better shape to keep up with said speed. We start out with a one who seems to have the right name for speed, namely the Italian veteran Roberto Ferrari riding for Lampre-Merida. He has looked good in the flat stages and will probably get going again today. Debusschere also have done good, but slacked at the last one in stage 8.

Next one is between two GC contenders and we believe that Contador looks like the favorite to take it here, but Froome is better on the flat stages. With these odds we will gladly take the bet as Froome should be the favorite among these two.

Last one is between two riders that are quite evenly matched, but we feel that the rising French star riding for Giant-Shimano, Warren Barguil, has the edge in the flat stages. He likes it speedy and will be able to follow with ease. Daniel Martin is no scrub though and can keep this interesting, but we feel that there is plenty value in this bet.

Match-Up: Roberto Ferrari to beat Jens Debusschere, 1.83 @ Bet365

Match-Up: Chris Froome to beat Alberto Contador, 2.00 @ Bet365

Match-Up: Warren Barguil to beat Daniel Martin, 2.05 @ William Hill

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 11 – Betting Tips

There have been some major shakeups in the general qualifications on the last two stages. Contador displayed some incredible strength in the mountains in stage 9 and really caught most of the riders (and us) by surprise. He went on the attack late and parked both Froome and Valverde behind himself and took a decent lead in the overall standings.

Many thought that this would be closed down fully by stage 10′s time trial, but again that was not to be. Obviously Tony Martin took the stage win here, but Contador showed excellent form yet again and with Froome on the defensive the Italian could easily ride in to overtake the red jersey. And to add even more to the stir through the top ranks we had a crash from Quintana which sent him right out of the top 10 and his chances of a overall win is severely hampered. He didn’t look all that sharp either so I guess it didn’t matter all that much, but it still stings for him.

Pamplona to Santuario De San Miguel De Aralar – Stage 11 Preview

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Stage 9 had some exciting riding and a new contender for the overall win appeared when Winner Anacona took the stage far ahead of the other GC favourites. He has now placed himself amidst the other riders and if he can keep up this form in this stage he will be well in place to take it all. But I am guessing that Contador and Tinkoff-Saxo now are fully aware of his capabilites, and given his position he will be closely watched.

The stage we are facing tomorrow is one that looks innoxious enough, but has a grueling ending. It starts out relatively flat and you won’t find a solid climb until the riders are two-thirds into the race. This is an “easy” 3rd category hill that should be ascended with ease before they ride downhill and prepare for the tough ending up the finall hill. This is a 10km long climb with a over 7% steepness. Obviously rated a 1st category this one is gonna sap the energy out of even the toughest of riders.

Obviously there are possibilities of breaks here yet again, and given how stage 9 unfolded we might see several of them have a go at it again. Many of the GC riders are content just defending their positions it seems and are not in any kind of hurry to attack the others. It will be hard to go the distance alone with that climb at the end, but if the break is big enough we might have someone far enough in the front that they can boost themselves to the front of the GC like Anacona did the other day.

Our Predictions

Several match-up bets are being placed today and one we especially like is the Froome-Quintana one. This is mostly a bet on Quintana who we think have had a horrible Vuelta so far. The crash yesterday does not makes things better and we do not believe his form will be better for it. Froome does not look all to sharp either, but certainly much stronger than Quintana and he still has hopes of winning this thing and will fight for that.

Navarro to beat Rubio is a simple recent form bet: Navarro has looked strong, Chaves somewhat as well, but have been faltering and looked sluggish in the TT.

Then we have two supporting riders that both are about the same strength we feel. Gesink been doing a bit better so far, but we think Nieve will up his production when he needs to pull Froome tomorrow. Taking the odds here.

Kelderman a good overall rider that can do most things well, but Moreno is a much stronger mountain climber. Definitely betting on him to place higher than the Dutchman here.

Match-Up: Chris Froome to beat Nairo Quintana, 1.72 @ Bet365

Match-Up: Daniel Navarro to beat Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio, 1.72 @ Bet365

Match-Up: Mikel Nieve to beat Robert Gesink, 2.20 @ Bet365

Match-Up: Daniel Moreno to beat Wilco Kelderman, 1.75 @ Unibet

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 9 – Betting Tips

As expected Bouhanni crushed everyone else when he can ride without pressure at the end. He got a little trouble coming from Michael Matthews who seemed to be coming up on him, but he timed it just a little too short. Other big players wanted to get in the mix as Sagan and Degenkolb were not far behind, but the French-Algerian were just too strong for the second time around.

We did not see anyone breaking out and doing some work, or if you consider a 50+ rider bunch a break you might. As we closed in on the finish we saw most of the teams trying to up the speed yet again and many riders feel off because of the pace and the heat. Quintana was one who had to drop off and looks kinda weak so far. But all the sprinting cannons got in the front and it became a battle of reverse chicken: who wanted to burst out first? Bouhanni started his treck way earlier than he used to, but it paid off and gave him the second stage win.

Our betting finally got back on track. Both our bets won by clear margins as Tom Boonen looked really solid and could even had a chance at taking the stage, while Mondory was a giant disappointment. We want to give it a try to find another pair of good value bets today before the break. Hope this doesn’t have a really bad timing as once I am back in the streak I have to take a day off! :P

Carboneras De Guadazaón to Aramón Valdelinares – Stage 9 Preview

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After they had two stages to calm down after a serious climbing route (I guess it haven’t been much calm with the pace the teams have set), it is now back to the mountains. This has a some serious hills to ascend though. It starts out easy enough with a minor upward slope, then a big drop and another minor slope for the first half. Then we will find the first 3rd category climb followed by more descending, but the end has a big 2nd category climb followed by a steep 1st category that will end in Aramón Valdelinares. Looks somewhat similar to stage 6 who had a grueling ending, just as this one. Let us hope we can see some similar battles between the GC contenders. The first outing was very exciting and I hope to see that again.

The successful breaks have been far and few between and I do not foresee more shenanigans given the willingness of the teams to push the pace at times. Given how the stage is laid out will make it hard to be able to go at it alone with the climbing so I do not think we will see this happening. There is off course always someone who is willing to try, but don’t expect to see anyone claim the stage win from a break here.

Our Predictions

What we have today are some value bets going against some of the big riders that we perceive as to bet completely out of form. Both Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana has not shown anything to be too impressed off so we like the other riders to do well here. We believe that the front will be made up off Valverde, Froome and possibly Rodriguez as the strongest contenders. We will thus bet accordingly and put all off our bets against the Tinkoff-Saxo rider who has yet to show up.

Match-Up: Chris Froome to beat Alberto Contador, 1.61 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Alejandro Valverde to beat Alberto Contador, 1.57 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Alberto Contador, 1.80 @ William Hill

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 8 – Betting Tips

Finally we witnessed a solid break, and it started early, kept the lead all the way and finished in style with the Cannondale rider Alessandro De Marchi took a strong victory in a tricky stage. This is his first major triumph so this must be quite a good day for him. Although he looked really fresh, I guess he were helped by the fact that the rest of the break group did not seem to be in top form. Hesjedal, Dupont and Tschopp all had to give in when they got closer to the finish which left the Italian all on his own riding in Alcaudete.

There weren’t much change in the general qualifications and it is still as exciting as ever. I cannot remember last time there were so many strong contenders for the first place in one of the major tours. It usually ends up with 2 big favorites duking it out with a couple of outsiders, but here there are several ones that could possibly claim it. I am eager to see how this will develop, and I might sit out some rounds of betting because this has not been a good one for now.

Baeza to Albacete – Stage 8 Preview

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There seems to be a good mix with stages in this Vuelta as we are now back in a flat stage after some days in the hills. It will for the most stage be straight forward, with a slight uphill climb in the middle and a slight drop for the last part of the race. This stage is also on the longer stretch of stages boasting over 200km of tarmac. It should be a fast paced ride where we can expect the sprinters sitting at the forefront.

Given how the races have panned out so far we do not expect another successful break, but we still think it has merit. Especially on such a somewhat tricky stage. Again, as long as a solid group of riders go at it there should be plenty of chances for having a run at it. But we foresee that the teams that are looking for their sprinters to claim stage wins will force the tempo up and ride hard.

Our Predictions

We have not been good at this lately so I am not even sure I want to add these, but you play them at your own risk. Note that this is not uncommon in sports betting where there are tiny edges to be had that we can be having a losing streak. I have stretches counting months of losing before I got back in the positive and it happens. But I know I should just keep on fighting!

Two match-ups for today as there seems to be only Degenkolb or Bouhanni that can take it again, and both those have quite short odds offered. We will rather take a look at some other top riders that could make something happen and one of those is Tom Boonen. He has been hanging back lately, but showed breakout potential in stage 2. This seems to be a stage that fits him and he should have the better of Hutarovich who also would like this flat surface.

Another is a longer shot where we think Mondory has looked sluggish lately. He started off nicely in the first stages where he got up close and personal, but now he hasn’t kept up with the peloton as well. Maes is not the greatest either, but showed glimmer of prowess in the 5th and 2nd stages, he can do so again here and go for a big day.

Match-Up: Tom Boonen to beat Yauheni Hutarovich, 2.10 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Nikolas Maes to beat Lloyd Mondory, 3.00 @ Bet365

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 7 – Betting Tips

Day 6 of this years Vuelta is over with and we saw some exciting last kilometers of this race. Alejandro Valverde, the spanish veteran really showed the young guns how to ride in the steep climbs today. He powered on so hard for the last part of the stage that even the favorite to win this year, Nairo Quintana had to drop off in the hill. He looked like someone who had done this all his life, and he basically has, when he parked both Froome and Contador behind himself.

This netted him not only the stage win, but also the red jersey with a solid lead. He might not hang on to it for too long as there is another time trial coming up where isn’t exactly the strongest rider, but this heightens his chances of a win here. Froome needed to keep up as he needs extra seconds to the trials, and Contador is also looking to get a win this year after bailing out of the Tour. As for our betting tips last night, let’s just say it wasn’t the best we’ve had :P

Alhendín to Alcaudete – Stage 7 Preview

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We are not done with the mountains, but there won’t be all that bad this day around. There is a steep climb at the start, but there is also placed some sprinting checkpoints throughout the race, so many riders will be looking to attack here. It starts out flat for 30km, then it goes on a steep climb and from then on it kinda slowly descends with several bumps until they ride uphill to the finish line in Alcaudete.

This is kind of a mixture stage that seems perfect for breaks to have their way. So far we haven’t seen any solid groups go on the offense, as today for example we only saw two riders go at it once the race got underway, but it is hard to take it all the way, which they almost did, but we saw that they wouldn’t last on the last climb. Here the field is more suited for breaks and riders are probably aware of that. I am surprised that we haven’t seen more riders take it away, maybe the end of the season is taking its toll on many of them? Most of the teams are probably trying to nab a win for their teams as many of the big guns sit without a big tour win this year, taking no chances as this is the last of the big 3 in 2014.

Our Predictions

This seems to be a stage that the bookies can’t quite make their mind up whether they think it is a mountainous stage or a flat one. Obviously it is something in between, but it seems to be a tossup on who they think will win this as the odds vary wildly. We see that the odds at Pinnacle Sports has set the odds on another John Degenkolb win to 7.82. Adding on to this we like Nacer Bouhanni to take it at 13.00, found at both Bet365 and BetVictor. These are not posted plays though, but we have some money on these as we think the sprinters can keep up in the hills.

What we do like is the mistake that William Hill have done in thinking this is a stage for the climbers. Rodriguez is considered neck and neck with Kelderman, but Kelderman is the far better sprinter here. The same can be said for Martens over Mondory and Valverde over Martin. All of these seem to be based on the fact that they think this is a tough hilly stage, but we predict otherwise. A nice, relatively easy ride that will allow the sprinters to get to the front.

Match-Up: Alejandro Valverde to beat Daniel Martin, 1.67 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Wilco Kelderman to beat Joaquim Rodriguez, 1.85 @ William Hill

Match-Up: Paul Martens to beat Lloyd Mondory, 1.50 @ William Hill

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 6 – Betting Tips

Hats off to Degenkolb! Consecutive wins is quite the feat in any of the bigger tours and he is now really sailing up as one of the gunners to really be reckoned with. Some might argue that he boxed in Bouhanni, but the judges would have none of that and crowned the german of Giant-Shimano the winner. Given that we had our bet on Bouhanni we were not really happy with how this played out, and trying to be unbiased here I would say that it seemed very peculiar him moving out like that, but I am trying to take losses gracefully and I will do so here then :)

The race didn’t pan out as I had expected. Given the massive heat that were put upon the riders made it hard to exert too much energy and there were only a two-man break that got away. The pace of the peloton were really sluggish today, but there were still a couple of riders that decided to attack at various points. Even Froome made a push to get some extra seconds on the other GC contenders in the intermediate check. At the end though the speed got high and frisky, and we saw quite a lot of riders attacking the rest of the field with Tinkoff-Saxo leading the way. At the end we had a mass sprint where both Bouhanni and Degenkolb were in a league of their own.

Benalmádena to La Zubia – Stage 6 Preview

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Now we are starting on a mountain stage and it would be a slight miracle if Degenkolb would do a trifecta here. It is not that hilly of a stage, but there are two gruel climbs to look forward to, especially the finish which will feature an exceptionally steep climb for about 5km. We are sure to see some attacking from some of the GC contenders here as there are many that are not looking forward to the time trial and need to get some extra seconds going into that. We expect Froome to want to nail something here, and Quintana is always to be expected when there is hills to ascend.

As said the first third of the stage runs like a sprinting stage, but then it takes off with a 8km climb and it gets a little bumpy for the rest of the ride, but nothing spectacular. A slight 3rd category climb is in there, but downhill for the most part otherwise. The fight is gonna happen at the end, that I am certain off.

Our Predictions

Not much value we have found in todays race as Joaquin Rodriguez is the big favorite in the race tomorrow. The odds of him winning at 3.00 is a little tempting considering he is such a strong rider and this is just his forte, but there are so many things that can happen during a 167km+ race that I do not like to play those odds.

We will rather try to find some other strong contenders that can take it and one of these we like is the Spanish veteran riding for Team Katusha, namely Daniel Moreno. He has been keeping up in the sprinting stages and showed that he can hang with the best, but he is also pretty tough when it comes to the mountains. He showed that both under the Dauphine and in Burgos. A smaller bet on him as the winner is warranted with these odds.

As the last bets we will also tack on a couple of match-ups: a couple of evenly matched riders in Pardilla and Chaves. Old vs young and we believe that the veteran has the edge and we will take the odds. The same goes for Arroyo vs Aru. Experience vs up and coming. Again we believe they are about evenly matched, but since we are offered longer odds we will take it.

Stage Winner: Daniel Moreno, 19.00 @ BetVictor

Match-Up: Sergio Pardilla to beat Jhoan Esteban Chavez Rubio, 2.25 @ Unibet

Match-Up: David Arroyo to beat Fabio Aru, 2.35 @ Unibet

Vuelta a España 2014 – Stage 5 – Betting Tips

John Degenkolb took a much deserved win after being a loyal rider and shooting his teammate Greipel to several of them in the Tour, and now it finally were his turn to nab one for himself. One would not believe he could muster all this force and win by such a landslide in the sprint after what we saw yesterday in stage 3, but he were able to pull himself together and get things on the right track again.

When it comes to the GC we still have all of the favorites close to the front. Quintana is right behind Matthews who is in the lead for the time being, but Valverd, Contador, Evans, Froome and others are all close behind. Not weird considering that we are not even 1/5th into the race and we haven’t gotten started with the big climbs yet where the wheat will be separated from the chaff.

Priego De Córdoba to Ronda – Stage 5 Preview

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Another relatively flat stage is on the menu for the riders tomorrow, and now most of them seems to have become acclimated to the heat that is presented in Spain. The length of the stage is not that harsh either, but with a slight climb right before the final sputters of the stage could spell trouble for some of the power sprinters. The fact that there is a big day coming up tomorrow where there is some serious climbing to be done about halfway through up Alto de Zafarraya and at the end where we will find slopes that are well over 10%(!). Most of the GC contenders and possibly climbers might want to save as much energy as they can here, so a break is likely to stage a win here. We have already seen high willingness to attack, but the speed of the peloton has been high as well the later days, except for maybe today. I foresee a break that might take it all the way if it forms at a big enough group and they work well together.

Our Predictions

Obviously the sprinters will be big favorites to take the stage win here, but I reckon that most of the value will lie in finding an outsider that can cling on to a break and take it from there. I have yet to find one of those good bets, so I will rather go the safe route: Bouhanni looked really strong finishing the sprint in the second stage and I believe he is hungry for another one. Should this race go to a mass sprint (I am not so sure it will), I think he wins this 90%+ of the time. The odds offered at Unibet then poses a pretty decent value bet.

We also tack on some match-ups as the French rider Mondory has looked solid in all the races so far being in the top 10 in each of them. Reynes has did get second place today, but he has also been very inconsistent. This is another one where the bookies are overreacting to a recent result. A decent rider, but Mondory is clearly the better one and more stable.

The last one is two speedsters from Colombia – Quintana, who is the favorite to take this years Vuelta, is going up against Rigoberto Uran. These have been fighting close by and are ending up about the same places around each other. There is a clear skill difference though as Quintana is the way better rider. He is likely to steer clear of him here and nab a very high position as Uran has nothing on him and will be hard pressed to keep up if the speed of the peloton gets high enough.

Stage Winner: Nacer Bouhanni, 2.85 @ Unibet

Match-Up: Lloyd Mondory to beat Vicente Reynes, 1.95 @ Unibet

Match-Up: Nairo Quintana to beat Rigoberto Uran, 1.70 @ William Hill

Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 5 – Betting Tips

Poor day in the trenches. Farrar and Vallee both looked totally lost and were crushed by not only the opponents we set them up against, but also in the overall setting. Vallee burned out too much in trying to gain an early advantage and got left behind when the peloton upped the tempo once again. At least Stepniak could edge his opponent.

Now it is time for some other types of riders to shine. I am betting Rafa Majka is anxious to get going and prove his worth at home. He managed to snatch the polka dot in Tour de France after their captain Alberto Contador hit the dust. Not only that but he also managed to take 2 stage wins in the mountains. Incredible performance by him. This stage would be a perfect one for him to creep up on the leader at the moment in Vakoc who is not exactly a prominent climber.

Zakopane to Strbskie Plese – Stage 5 Preview

zakopane-to-strbskie-pleso-stage-5-profile
We now move away both from the flat stages and Poland and into the mountains and Slovakia. This is quite a tough one that features a somewhat easy first half of the stage with only one second category bump. We are likely to see someone trying to form a break here, but it will be hard to be able to sustain it into the second half. This part is to become a lot more gruesome as it has 3 category one climbs, the final one which ends at the top of Strbskie Pleso. Only the toughest of climbers will be able to make anything work here, and if a break should have any hope of being able to sustain itself they not only need to work together, but they need to be more than just a few in order to have the strength for it.

I would not like their chances though as the peloton has been fierce in keeping up with breaks and I bet Tinkoff-Saxo is quite anxious in getting their newborn star at the front of the race here.

Our Predictions

It is gonna be really exciting seeing who is who when we finally get to the mountains here. As already mentioned we think that Rafa Majka is gonna be out to prove himself here and he has a good chance given his showing in France. Now there are opponents he needs to fend off here and one of those we think have a good chance of taking him is Julian Arredondo of Trek Factory. This young Colombian rode exceptionally well in Giro d’Italia and nabbed the polka dot there for his efforts. He also got a stage win there, and with this support team behind him he definitely will be able to give him competition to the door. Combine all of this with the fact that he has been able to rest for longer we like his chances not only to edge out Majka, but also to take a stage win here.

Stage Winner: Julian Arredondo, 5.50 @ BetVictor

Tour de Pologne 2014 – Stage 4 – Betting Tips

Great start to our betting on this race, just as where we left off. I even got a little extra something from the Bos win, but not much as I kept the betting there to a minimum. Felt the top riders were quite the big favorites to take this, but Theo Bos played the end of the race perfectly.

Just as I expected the peloton would be more fierce in their attempt to catch up with the breakaways after the “shocking” win by Vakoc on stage 2. When 4 riders broke away early in the race it did not take long before the main group of riders decided to up the tempo and get moving. They easily caught up with them and we were witnessing a mass sprint at the end. This one were played perfectly by Bos who sat on the wheel of the big ones and attacked on the final stretch which secured him the win.

Tarnów Gemini Park to Katowice – Stage 4 Preview

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It is time for yet another flat stage. Somewhat longer and a uphill climb in the middle there, but for the most part we will find that the sprinters once again are gonna duke it out for the stage win. As said this one is also a little longer than yesterday, and given that it was hard riding yesterday we might see someone take it easy here. Could pose a chance for a break, but again we believe that the sprinter teams likely won’t have any of that and should do their part to get their riders at the front.

The ending here is also interesting as there will be about 4 laps of little over 12km that is filled with turns and bends. If we haven’t already had enough crashes and accidents, there is bound to be someone pushing the boundary here and get a little too frisky in a turn. The final stretch is about 1km of a straight line, so there is room for the power riders to really get it going.

Our Predictions

The favorites are about the same as the ones we had yesterday. Bos, Matthews, Mecgez, Matthews, Modolo, Hutarovich and so on will likely get to the finish line in the top ten and we are gonna have an exciting one.

The first one is weird. Boris Vallee should be the clear favorite, but William Hill has given him the highest odds. Easy value bet right here.

Hutarovich didn’t look as strong yesterday and might have burned a little too much off in his victory race. Against Tyler Farrar he should be the favorite in going up at the top, but we foresee him giving another weak showing and probably give a chance for Farrar to overtake him here.

Finally we have two close riders in terms of strength, but Stepniak should be favored in this ending. If he gets in a sprint he should have the big edge over Chavanel when it is slight downhill. Combine this with the fact that his riding has been a bit sub-par so far we like a bet on Stepniak to do his job here.

Match-up: Boris Vallee to beat Ramon Sinkeldam, 2.05 @ William Hill

Match-up: Tyler Farrar to beat Yauheni Hutarovich, 2.37 @ William Hill

Match-up: Grzegorz Stepniak to beat Sebastian Chavanel, 1.83 @ Bet365